CAD_HKD Analysis

Last: 5.60245 | Change: -0.00327 | Date: 2025-04-24

Phase: Mean Reversion > Early Mean Reversion > Failed Momentum > False Breakout > False Breakout > Early Mean Reversion: False Breakout 80.0%

Market State

Market State

Trend: Downtrend (Weak)
RSI: 53.53 (Neutral)
Volume: Stable (Normal)
Volatility: 0.1087 (Normal)
Price Action: Normal
Price Structure: Lower Highs & Lows
Momentum: -0.0034 (Strong)
ATR: 0.0061
NATR: 0.1087
Trend Alignment: No

Phase Analysis

Current Phase: Mean Reversion > Early Mean Reversion > Failed Momentum > False Breakout

Confidence: 80.0%

Stage: False Breakout

Detail: Early Mean Reversion: False Breakout

Daily Timeframe

Phase: Momentum > Early Momentum > First Pullback Retest > Profit Taking

Confidence: 60.0%

Stage: Profit Taking

Description: A minor pullback due to profit taking.

Alignment with Current Phase: Significant Conflict (-60 pts)

Current Category: Reversal

Daily Category: Continuation

H4 Timeframe

Phase: Consolidation After Breakdown > Initial Stabilization

Confidence: 75.0%

Stage: Stabilization

Alignment with Current Phase: Moderate Conflict (-30 pts)

Current Category: Reversal

H4 Category: Consolidation

Market Metrics

Trend: Down (Weak)

RSI: 53.5 (Neutral)

Volume: Stable (Normal)

Volatility: 0.1087 (High)

Support & Resistance

Current Price: 5.6025

Resistance Levels

5.6235 Strong (0.38% away)
5.6254 Strong (0.41% away)
5.6315 Strong (0.52% away)

Support Levels

5.5980 Strong (0.08% away)
5.5968 Strong (0.10% away)
5.5810 Strong (0.38% away)

Trade Setups

Early Momentum Breakout

LONG

Confidence: 56.5%

Daily Timeframe Context

Phase: Momentum

Phase Alignment: Aligned (+8 pts)

Setup Alignment: Neutral (+0 pts)

Current Category: Continuation
Daily Category: Continuation

H4 Timeframe Context

Phase: Consolidation After Breakdown

Phase Alignment: Minor Conflict (-20 pts)

Setup Alignment: Neutral (+0 pts)

Current Category: Continuation
H4 Category: Consolidation After Breakdown

Volume Analysis

Strong Volume Confirmation (+30 pts)

High Volume Breakout: Yes
Volume Ratio: 1.84x

Group Equilibrium Context

Group 2 Leader

Current State: Equilibrium-Seeking

Agreement Score: 75.0%

Group Alignment: Minor Conflict (+0 pts)
Direction alignment undetermined

Expected Behavior: Trending
Likely Outcome: Partial Change