AUD_HKD Analysis

Last: 4.94730 | Change: -0.00572 | Date: 2025-04-24

Phase: Mean Reversion > Early Mean Reversion > Failed Momentum > False Breakout > False Breakout > Early Mean Reversion: False Breakout 80.0%

Market State

Market State

Trend: Downtrend (Weak)
RSI: 50.44 (Neutral)
Volume: Stable (Normal)
Volatility: 0.2297 (Normal)
Price Action: Normal
Price Structure: Lower Highs & Lows
Momentum: -0.0056 (Strong)
ATR: 0.0114
NATR: 0.2297
Trend Alignment: No

Phase Analysis

Current Phase: Mean Reversion > Early Mean Reversion > Failed Momentum > False Breakout

Confidence: 80.0%

Stage: False Breakout

Detail: Early Mean Reversion: False Breakout

Daily Timeframe

Phase: Momentum > Early Momentum > First Pullback Retest > Profit Taking

Confidence: 60.0%

Stage: Profit Taking

Description: A minor pullback due to profit taking.

Alignment with Current Phase: Significant Conflict (-60 pts)

Current Category: Reversal

Daily Category: Continuation

H4 Timeframe

Phase: Mean Reversion > Early Mean Reversion > Distribution To Range > Controlled Selling

Confidence: 100.0%

Stage: Controlled Selling

Alignment with Current Phase: Aligned (+5 pts)

Current Category: Reversal

H4 Category: Reversal

Market Metrics

Trend: Down (Weak)

RSI: 50.4 (Neutral)

Volume: Stable (Normal)

Volatility: 0.2297 (High)

Support & Resistance

Current Price: 4.9473

Resistance Levels

4.9938 Strong (0.94% away)
4.9697 Strong (0.45% away)
4.9961 Strong (0.99% away)

Support Levels

4.9255 Strong (0.44% away)
4.9291 Strong (0.37% away)

Trade Setups

Early Momentum Breakout

LONG

Confidence: 41.5%

Daily Timeframe Context

Phase: Momentum

Phase Alignment: Aligned (+8 pts)

Setup Alignment: Neutral (+0 pts)

Current Category: Continuation
Daily Category: Continuation

H4 Timeframe Context

Phase: Mean Reversion

Phase Alignment: Significant Conflict (-50 pts)

Setup Alignment: Neutral (+0 pts)

Current Category: Continuation
H4 Category: Reversal

Group Equilibrium Context

Group 0 Follower

Current State: Equilibrium-Seeking
Final State: Trending

Agreement Score: 94.7%

Group Alignment: Strong Alignment (+30 pts)
Setup direction aligns with group behavior

Expected Behavior: Trending
Likely Outcome: Group Follows Leaders